DISASTER RESEARCH CENTER

COLLABORATIVE CDI-TYPE II: Cyber Enabled Discovery System for Advanced Multidisciplinary Study of Humanitarian Logistics for Disaster Response

RESEARCHERS: Tricia Wachtendorf

FUNDING: National Science Foundation

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
This project seeks to better understand how donations are collected and distributed. Using observational work conducted during recent disasters and interviews with individuals from organizations and agencies involved in formal and informal relief efforts, this study examines the organizational aspects of material convergence and subjective motivations for contributing donations to disaster relief, with particular emphasis on unsolicited donations. Drawing on the mathematical and social sciences, and on transportation, industrial and computer engineering, it aims to develop new models of the flow of goods to the disaster site based on analysis of media data (e.g., news, websites, social networks), and on responses to previous disasters. The project qualitatively and quantitatively examines the relationship between media framing of needs and material convergence, improving understanding of what and how donations are collected and shared, and it suggests response strategies to better react to or influence media-driven material convergence.

GUR – A Stated Preference Survey to Model Patient Behavior During a Biological Outbreak

RESEARCHERS: Sue McNeil

FUNDING: UD General University Research (GUR)

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
During a large-scale biological outbreak, public health agencies may employ Points of Dispensing (PODs) to distribute medical countermeasures to affected populations. While the public health community has studied the operation of PODs, little attention has been paid to how patients access PODs and whether the transportation system can support POD access. POD patients’ behaviors and decisions represent a significant obstacle for accurately modeling the traffic impacts of POD operations as little is known of how patients make decisions and what influences these decisions. Our goal is to better understand the patient decision-making process during a public health emergency. In this project, we are designing and implementing a web-based stated preference survey. The stated preference survey will address five distinct decisions: “if patients will go to a POD,” “which POD will they go to,” “when will they go to the POD,” “how will they get there,” and “which route will they take.” Additionally, the survey will examine the effects of providing POD information through news outlets and social media. The survey and data collection design are being structured to calibrate a discrete choice model that can be integrated into the existing transportation model to explore additional scenarios.

HAZARDS SEES TYPE 2: Dynamic Integration of Natural, Human, and Infrastructure Systems for Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering

RESEARCHERS: Rachel Davidson, Tricia Wachtendorf

FUNDING: National Science Foundation

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
We are developing a new computational framework to support hurricane evacuation management. The framework, called the Integrated Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE), explicitly represents uncertainty in hurricane evolution and can be used to support robust, adaptive, and repeated decision-making. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic hurricane scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. Components are integrated in a multi-stage stochastic program to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The recommendations advance the state-of-the-art because: (1) they are based on an integrated hazard assessment that includes the effects of storm surge, wind waves, tides, river discharge, inland flooding, and wind; (2) explicitly balance competing objectives of minimizing risk and travel time; (3) offer a well-hedged solution robust under the range of hurricane evolutions; and (4) leverage the substantial value of decreasing uncertainty during an event. The first version has been developed and demonstrated in North Carolina. Additional PIs: R. Kolar, Oklahoma, B. Blanton, UNC Chapel Hill, L. Nozick, Cornell, and B.Colle Stony Brook

JHU/CDC: Composite of Post-Event Well-Being (Copewell)

DURATION: August 15, 2017 – August 14, 2020
RESEARCHERS: James Kendra

FUNDING: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Johns Hopkins University

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
COPEWELL is a systems dynamics model of community functioning and well-being during and after a disaster, designed to be used as a predictor, pre-event, of peri- and post-event resilience at the county level. Current project activities include initial sharing of the model, validation, stakeholder engagement, and evaluation. Principal Investigators: Jonathan M. Links, Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness; Additional Co-PI: Tom Inglesby, MD, UPMC Center for Health Security

Mental Health Impacts of the Covid-19 Response on the Public Health Workforce in the U.S.

DURATION: January 1, 2020 – June 30, 2021
RESEARCHERS: Jennifer Horney

FUNDING: Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Research

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
The prolonged response to the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted the mental health of the public health workforce. As we enter the ninth month of pandemic response with COVID-19 cases surging across the U.S., the pressures placed on the public health workforce are intensifying. Given unprecedented simultaneous challenges – the length, intensity, and politicization of the public health response, the potential for overlapping outbreaks of influenza, and the need to plan and implement a vaccination campaign – it is critical to identify protective factors that may mitigate the ongoing mental health impacts on a public health workforce already near its breaking point.

NFWF: Resilience Through Regeneration in Northeast Wilmington

DURATION: January 1, 2020 – December 31, 2020
RESEARCHERS: Jennifer Horney

FUNDING: National Fish and Wildlife Foundation

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
The project uses innovative “resilience through regeneration” design techniques that capitalize on the reuse of vacant and abandoned properties for green infrastructure and use landscape performance measures to quantify resilience and flood risk reduction benefits. Together with hydrologic and flood resilience, social, economic, and public health performance of designs will be measured and reported to the community based on their expressed priorities for improvements to public health, recreational access, and economic opportunities and to federal, state, and local stakeholders that will be involved in future funding, permitting, and implementation of the resilient masterplan for Northeast Wilmington.

NIEHS: Comprehensive Tools and Models for Addressing Exposure to Mixtures During Environmental Emergency-Related Contamination Events

DURATION: April 1, 2017 – March 31, 2022
RESEARCHERS: Jennifer Horney

FUNDING: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
Comprehensive tools and models for addressing exposure to mixtures during environmental emergency-related contamination events. Overall Program Description: Climate change and shifts in domestic economic activity markedly increase risks from catastrophic chemical contamination events resulting from weather-related or anthropogenic emergencies. The complexities of hazardous chemical exposures, potential adverse health impacts, and the need to rapidly and comprehensively evaluate the potential hazards of exposures to complex mixtures call for novel approaches in the Superfund Research Program. This Center brings together a team of scientists from biomedical, geosciences, data science and engineering disciplines to design comprehensive solutions for complex exposure- and hazard-related challenges. Our overall theme is to characterize and manage both existing and environmental emergency-created hazardous waste sites through the development of the tools that can be used by first responders, the impacted communities, and the government bodies involved in site management and cleanup. Our case study is a hurricane or flooding event that impacts Galveston Bay/Houston Ship Channel area and leads to exposure to contaminated sediments.

NSF COLLAB RSH CRISP TYPE 2: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure

DURATION: September 1, 2017 – August 31, 2021
RESEARCHERS: Rachel Davidson, James Kendra

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
Critical infrastructure systems, such as electric power and water supply, must be designed, managed, and operated so they function reliably and efficiently even in the case of an extreme event. Nevertheless, the way infrastructure system services meet societal needs and the way disruptions of those services impair the ability to meet societal needs are not well understood. In this project, we will define the societal objectives for infrastructure system performance in earthquakes and develop a method to comprehensively optimize a broad range of risk management strategies to meet them, including component design, upgrading, and repair and restoration planning. Specific project tasks include: (1) Developing a probabilistic scenario-based model of the risk of multiple infrastructure systems to earthquakes with the ability to evaluate alternative risk management strategies; (2) Integrating the complementary strengths of social media, household surveys, and economic impact analyses to empirically assess societal objectives, users’ adaptive strategies in responding to disruptions, and the relationships between them and traditional measures of system functioning; (3) Developing an optimization model to optimize risk management to meet societal objectives; and (4) Demonstrating models through a full-scale case study for electric power and water in collaboration with our partners at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

NSF EAGER: Risk Objects In Public Health Crisis: An Exploratory Investigation Of Stigma, Role-Triage, And Cautionary Measures

DURATION: October 1, 2015 – August 31, 2019
RESEARCHERS: James Kendra, Tricia Wachtendorf
ADDITIONAL INVESTIGATOR: Sarah Sisco, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
DRC, in partnership with the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene will conduct research on the management of the Ebola crisis in NYC. This study focuses on the generation of stigma in epidemic (or epidemic threatened) environments. In particular, we explore who is involved in the generation of stigma labels, why these labels emerge, the consequences they generate, and how various stakeholders promote, resist, or contend with stigma. The project seeks to learn how public officials, in an environment of scientific uncertainty and multijurisdictional conflict and contradiction, can counter stigmatization and mitigate the creation of risk.

NSF HAZARD SEES TYPE 2: Next Generation, Resilient Warning Systems For Tornados And Flash Floods

RESEARCHERS: Joseph Trainor
ADDITIONAL INVESTIGATOR: Brenda Philips, Umass Amherst)

FUNDING: National Science Foundation

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:
On this project, researchers are working as part of a collaborative, multi-disciplinary team to explore the basic science to support the next generation of warning systems for rapid-onset hazards such as tornadoes and flash floods.  In particular, we are working to better understand how to predict and disseminate warnings in shorter time windows and with smaller warning spaces.  In order to do this, the project combines new radar and mobile phone technology with an improved understanding of human responses to warnings in order to better meet the goal of keeping people and property safe. DRC researchers are using focus groups, surveys, and short questionnaires on a cell phone app to better understand how people decide if specific weather is threatening or not.  In addition to other factors, we are specifically focused on how different times and places people find themselves in when they receive warnings might change how they respond to them.  We are also exploring how warnings delivered on mobile phones differ from other types of dissemination methods.  For example, we are examining the ability of apps to deliver individualized storm warning information to people and whether people give their attention differently to warnings received through their phones than they might to more traditional methods of warning delivery.